HUGE Lebanon Update - Reason For Optimism

A lot of stuff seemed to happen overnight, or I just was not paying close enough attention. Lets start

A Lebanese Ceasefire Plan has a real chance:

The Lebanese cease-fire plan, developed by Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora, will be presented to Rice. It calls for an immediate cease-fire, the release of Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails and the return of two Israeli soldiers held by Hezbollah.

The plan calls for the return of displaced Lebanese and negotiations between Israel and Lebanon concerning the disputed Shebaa farms under Israeli control.

It also calls for the release of maps showing Israeli minefields near the Lebanese border; the deployment and strengthening of the Lebanese army; and the expansion of the U.N. force in the south.

Although Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire with Israel and a larger international presence in southern Lebanon, the group objected to "a robust force" of international peacekeepers, the sources said.

Also, Hezbollah did not specifically agree to disarm, as Israel has demanded, the sources said. The plan does call for the Lebanese military to take control of southern Lebanon, along with the U.N. force.

A great development that may address many of the problems that lead to the problems we are seeing. It will strengthen the Lebanese military, bring its rule into southern Lebanon, allows for an expanded UN role, addresses the lingering Shebba Farms subject, and allows Israel to save face with the return of its soldiers and with the successful removal of Hezbollah (voluntarily) in the south (a big deal for its security). And note to President Bush, the Ceasefire must come first in order for these concessions and terms to be implemented, the continued military offensive has NOT helped the situation.

Which bring us to a possible reason why Israel may be receptive to a ceasefire in my opinion; It is facing tough resistance in south Lebanon and especially in Bint Jbeil. Israel announces it will withdraw from action around the Hezbollah stronghold of Bint Jbeil.

JERUSALEM - Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared victory on Saturday after Israel announced it was withdrawing its forces from the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbail where Israeli troops found unexpected difficulty in dislodging the guerrilla group from its strongholds.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev defended the decision to pull troops from Bint Jbeil, saying Israel had never intended to occupy the town, but Nasrallah's
quick declaration of victory underscored the propaganda gains Hezbollah is reaping across the Muslim world as it battles Israel to a stalemate.

"The Israelis are ready to halt the aggression because they are afraid of the unknown," Nasrallah said in a speech in which he also expressed measured support for the Lebanese government's efforts to reach a peace agreement.

Despite Israel's claims that they never intended to take the town, it is very clear that they simply ran into too much resistance and did not think it wise to bring in a larger-scale ground force that could dislodge them (wise of them). What this amounts to is this:

Israel was not able and does not wish to bring the necessary force to truly dislodge Hezbollah in the south, the stature and power of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the middle east has increased due to their successful resistance to the IDF and will increase more as they spin this withdrawal as a victory against the IDF (the first in Arab History it may seem). Hezbollah simply has the upperhand in this situation and so Israel, seeing a way out diplomatically that will save it some face and, if truly implemented, will contribute to a more secure Israel. It will definitely give such a ceasefire a chance if it is smart.

Further proof that this is the case is evidenced by the reporting coming out of Reuters that Israel will not demand Hezbollah to disarm as a condition in a ceasefire. Israel understands the situation and knows such a demand will immediately torpedo any agreement on a ceasefire and jeopardize the terms of the ceasefire that it finds appealing. Whatever Israel says, Israel wants a ceasefire.

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel will not demand the immediate disarming of Hizbollah as part of a deal to end the current fighting in Lebanon, a senior Israeli foreign ministry official said on Saturday.

Israel's stance could make it easier to reach an agreement with major powers and the Lebanese government on the deployment of a peacekeeping force in south Lebanon.

Hizbollah would almost certainly reject a peacekeeping force whose mandate calls for its disarmament.

But if the UN force and the strengthened Lebanese Army (per the ceasefire) can keep Hezbollah away from the south it will be good for Israel and it may be counting on that. 1) It will make rocket attacks nearly impossible 2) It will strengthen Lebanon's Army to the point that IT could possibly work in the future in the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Israel's campaign in Lebanon has done nothing but strengthen the hand of Hezbollah, but it is possible that through diplomacy (hopefully the US will finally get off its ass!!) Israel and the world will gains something from the tragedies of the past couple weeks.

Here's to Hope!!