Turkish Parliament: Troops into N. Iraq When (If) Given Order

As expected, the Turkish Parliament passed the resolution officially authorizing any troop incursions into northern Iraq. And it passed by an overwhelming margin:

Turkey's parliament voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to allow the government the year-long right to send troops to neighboring northern Iraq to crush Turkish Kurdish rebels there. House speaker Koksal Toptan said 507 lawmakers in the 550-seat parliament voted in favor of a government motion seeking authorization for military action in northern Iraq; only 19 voted against.

Of course, it should be noted (and Turkey has taken pains to point out) that the passing of this resolution in no way means that a troop incursion is about to happen or even inevitable, it simply means that there is official authorization for it when it is deemed right.


So, technically nothing might happen...but, and this is a big 'but,' it is going to take some serious action on the part of the United States to convince Turkey not to do something their leaders and its population are practically demanding they do.

I'm not sure the Kurdish authorities can be counted on to crack down on PKK separatists, and as big of a mess as this could be for the US (especially since this has been the most 'peaceful region in Iraq so far), it has few options that are likely to mollify the Turks .

If it clamps down on the PKK and sends troops up north there are several drawbacks:

1) It reduces the number of troops it other necessary areas that continue to be violent areas: Baghdad, and al-Anbar...but mostly Baghdad area

2) It will inflame and anger Kurds up north who so far have proven pro-American and have not attacked US forces. Putting troops in the north increases the possibility of conflict with the Kurds, stirring up a hornets nest. I doubt the US want trouble there.

But what can it do?

It's a case of damn if you do and damn if you don't

They can't defend the Kurdish north from an incursion using the US military. Frankly that would be the worse outcome.

It would destroy our longstanding alliance with Turkey and put us in the uncomfortable and unthinkable position of having two NATO alliance members fighting each other. US supply lines which run through Turkey would likely be cut (and they still may be even if it doesn't come to blows), making keeping our soldiers armed and ready would be much more difficult.

Ultimately, I hope something will stop the Turks but if the Turks do send troops into northern Iraq, it is my belief that the US ultimately will stand by and not interfere. No doubt the Iraqi Kurds will remember that with some resentment (how that will effect future Iraq I don't know).

Things aren't looking very good...here's to a peaceful resolution.

I'll keep updating here.

PS: For you car people, you may start feeling the effects of this drama pretty soon. Fear of an incursion into norther Iraq have sent crude oil prices to $88 dollar/barrel and would only go up if they were to enter. Kirkuk - in norther Iraq - is rich with oil deposits and it should also be noted that the main transit point for Kirkuk oil runs through (you guessed it) Turkey.

PPS: I'm trying to shorten up my posts so I may post more often from now on. That way I can deal with the same amount of info but make it easier to read.