I was wrong

I had assumed that Israel would not make the decision to launch a full-scale ground offensive in S. Lebanon. I didn't believe it would want to repeat the difficulties it had last time around in Lebanon but I miscalculated.

As it stands, if hostilities end today, say with a ceasefire, Hezbollah would be considered the winner. This cannot go on forever though and I believe all sides, including Hezbollah would like to see a ceasefire and diplomacy take place. I still believe that a ceasefire is inevitable (though not necessarily the Lebanese offered ceasefire I mentioned yesterday who's viability I think I way overstated in hindsight), but I think this new ground offensive seems like a final attempt by Israel to seriously diminish Hezbollah in the south prior to a ceasefire.

It does not want to be seen as the loser and it wants Hezbollah to be weakened prior to diplomacy to reduce Hezbollah leverage in such negotiations. The clock is ticking and Israel's leadership is trying to get in as many blows (and perhaps hoping for a miraculous knock-out) as it can before the inevitable resumption (or establishment) of diplomacy between the many parties.

I could be wrong, its certainly already happened a few times in these 3 weeks of fighting.

I'll keep commentary brief on the following articles that should be read:

Lebanese PM thanks Hezboallah for its 'sacrifice' - Sad. Where once the Lebanese government might have been counted on as an instrument to counter Hezboallah, it seems the strikes by Israel and the civilian casualties are indeed pushing the Lebanese government and Hezbollah together.

I worried in past posts that the continuation of the conflict may - ironically - push the government and Hezbollah closer together and now we may be seeing the beginnings of that. Hopefully it can be revered. Perhaps when the strikes end the Lebanese government will continue to disassociate with the group.