I Was Wrong II (Iraq Edition)

This will be short, I promise. A few of you may have read my post on why I though it might be a bad idea to leave Iraq at this poiny.

Granted, I caveated it by saying that unless that belief depended on whether or not the US began to change into a counter-insurgency force using classical counter-insurgency tactics, but its not even about that.

While indeed the US has not, and shows little promise to change its tactics in the near future, a big reason for my belief also rested on the premise that the full-scale civil war could still be prevented and so it was worth trying to stop.

Almost as fast as I typed that and especially monotoring the coverage in the days since that post I have come to realize that the insurgents (well some of them) and Al-Qaeda types have succeded in instigating the civil war that they saw as the perfect way to get the US out of Iraq. The coming of the full-scale civil war seems like a foregone conclusion and at this point, I don't believe any drastic change in our tactics will change that.

It has gotten so bad that even once powerfull leaders in the different sectarian communities are finding it more and more difficult to calm their followers and their passions. These figures have lost control to more radical and militant elements in their group. The violence will only increase from this point and now there is no credible figures with the power or sway to stop the violence.

Read this about the once-powerfull Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani:

The most influential moderate Shia leader in Iraq has abandoned attempts to restrain his followers, admitting that there is nothing he can do to prevent the country sliding towards civil war.

Aides say Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is angry and disappointed that Shias are ignoring his calls for calm and are switching their allegiance in their thousands to more militant groups which promise protection from Sunni violence and revenge for attacks.

I will not be a political leader any more," he told aides. "I am only happy to receive questions about religious matters."

It is a devastating blow to the remaining hopes for a peaceful solution in Iraq and spells trouble for British forces, who are based in and around the Shia stronghold of Basra.

The cleric is regarded as the most important Shia religious leader in Iraq and has been a moderating influence since the invasion of 2003. He ended the fighting in Najaf between Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi army and American forces in 2004 and was instrumental in persuading the Shia factions to fight the 2005 elections under the single banner of the United Alliance.

However, the extent to which he has become marginalised was demonstrated last week when fighting broke out in Diwaniya between Iraqi soldiers and al-Sadr's Mehdi army. With dozens dead, al-Sistani's appeals for calm were ignored. Instead, the provincial governor had to travel to Najaf to see al-Sadr, who ended the fighting with one telephone call.

Al-Sistani's aides say that he has chosen to stay silent rather than suffer the ignominy of being ignored. Ali al-Jaberi, a spokesman for the cleric in Khadamiyah, said that he was furious that his followers had turned away from him and ignored his calls for moderation.

Asked whether Ayatollah al-Sistani could prevent a civil war, Mr al-Jaberi replied: "Honestly, I think not. He is very angry, very disappointed."

Those instigating a civil war have done their jobs because the limited civil war will soon turn into a full-scale one.

A report from the Pentagon on Friday said that the core conflict in Iraq had changed from a battle against insurgents to an increasingly bloody fight between Shia and Sunni Muslims, creating conditions that could lead to civil war. It noted that attacks rose by 24 per cent to 792 per week – the highest of the war – and daily Iraqi casualties soared by 51 per cent to almost 120, prompting some ordinary Iraqis to look to illegal militias for their safety and sometimes for social needs and welfare.

Its not really about the insurgency anymore, its about the violence between the different sectarian groups.
Full civil war is coming and there is no reason that US soldiers should be in the middle of that. There is nothing that the US military can do at this juncture to stop it from occuring, and thus there is no reason to stay. We have to set a timetable to leave and endevour to make that timetable as short as possible.

We must brace ourselves for the repercussions of Iraqi Civil War and pray to God that the Sunni/Shia War does not spill over into other Middle East nations and cause a regional conflagration. It would be bad enough if it stayed in Iraq, for it to spill over would be disaster.

My God...What has George W. Bush done to our world?

Bush and his Republican enablers must go, for the love of God vote these bums out this November (lets get Congress back) and lets put a Democrat in the White House in 2008. The past 6 (3/4) yrs have shows us what it means to vote for Republicans.

Lets improve our nation and the plight of all its people, and lets save our foreign policy, our image, our respect, and our national soul from the corruption, ignorance, incompetence, and hubris that characterize those that run our nation today.