Will the Ceasefire Survive Even the Month?

It's in everyone's interest for the ceasefire to hold, and I think they all want it to hold. Even then I worry when I read stuff like this. Via Talking Points Memo (Updates at bottom)

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Early reports indicate another military setback for Israel in Lebanon:

[Israeli] security sources said commandos in two vehicles unloaded from helicopters were on their way to attack an office of senior Hizbollah official Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek in the village of Bodai when they were intercepted. After the gunbattle, the Israelis pulled out under cover of fierce air strikes.

Reports of casualties are still coming in:

Hezbollah militia fighters found bloody bandages and syringes on the ground after the battle, leading them to conclude the Israelis suffered casualties. Hezbollah, on its Al Manar television, reported a number of Israeli casualties but did not say whether they were killed or wounded.

Lebanese security officials told the Reuters news agency that three Hezbollah fighters were killed and a half-dozen Israelis were killed or wounded, but Hezbollah did not confirm the toll.

Israel claims it suffered one death and two injuries. The worry, of course, is that the aborted raid--the first major violation of the ceasefire--will prompt a Hezbollah retaliation and re-escalate the conflict.

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(First, my bad to TPM for quoting the whole post. )

Now there is debate and argument over whether this commando operation counts as a breach of the ceasefire. Lebanon is very unhappy about the situation and contends that it was a breach. Because of this it has threatened that it may stop its deployment of its troops into southern Lebanon. I'm not sure I buy it. Lebanon has a big interest in the continuation of the ceasefire:

1) It and its people are not getting bombed
2) It wants to be able to have a presence in all Lebanon as it has the chance to do with the term in the ceasefire calling for it to occupy the south with the UN forces.

I think it is merely tough talk on the part of Lebanon in the hope that they will get the Israeli's to stop similar attacks in the future. It must know that Israel definitely wants to stay out of Lebanon and thus has much to lose if the ceasefire falls apart.

Hezbollah for its part needs some time to lick its wounds but I see it as very possible that if IDF and IAF strikes such as these were to continue, they were to announce the ceasefire dead and resume its bombardment into northern Israel, which of course would bring Israel back into Lebanon.

Israel is in a tough predicament: Let Hezbollah rearm or get sucked immediately into a disastrous conflict it just barely managed to dodge a week ago. Rock and a hard place. I would council against war, and do as much (like the US) to keep Iranian supply planes from reaching Syria, slow it that way.

There is very little Israel can do to stop the rearming of Hezbollah though, only Lebanon itself can "handle" the Hezbollah question (purposely vague use of "handle") because it became very clear over the conflict that Israel had neither the will nor ability to disarm or destroy Hezbollah itself.

Rock and a hard place...

Update: UN Sec. General Kofi Annan calls Israel raid a violation of ceasefire