Worrying About An Iran Conflict Part I

Where do I even begin? With the issue of Iran, the news seems to follow a pattern. It gushes forth in large spurts for a few days, goes away for another few then returns with a vengeance.

Well we seem to be on one of those occasions when its staggering what is out there...And none of the news articles leave me very optimistic about how our Iran policy is going to end up.

Fueling speculation recently (yesterday) about possible strikes in Iran is the story from the (conservative) London Telegraph that Israel was in the process of asking permission to fly over US-controlled skies in Iraq in the event of striking targets in Iran.

"Israel is negotiating with the United States for permission to fly over
Iraq as part of a plan to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, The Daily Telegraph
can reveal.

To conduct surgical air strikes against Iran's nuclear programme, Israeli
war planes would need to fly across Iraq. But to do so the Israeli military
authorities in Tel Aviv need permission from the Pentagon."

This shouldn't necessarily be taken to mean that an Israeli strike on Iran is definite, just that the possibility and eventuality of such an action is deemed plausible enough to warrant asking permission from the US ahead of time. I'd hate to think how Iran would retaliate against the US, inside and outside Iraq in the event of a Israeli strike. I'd also hate to think how the Iraqi Shias are going to respond to the US "giving a greenlight" for Israeli strikes on Shia Iran.

Perhaps it could trigger a wave of Shia violence aimed at the US. Up until now, the Sunni insurgents have been the main cause of US casualties. Who knows, maybe after such a greenlight, some Shia groups may also begin to make war on US troops.

If you think there's problems in Iraq for the US now, imagine if the large Sunni militias got involved...

Of course, the Israeli government vigorously denies seeking such permission from the United States.

"Israel on Saturday has denied a report in a British daily that it is
seeking permission from the United States to fly its bombers over Iraq to attack
Iran's nuclear facilities.

"There has never been such a request, it is obvious," Deputy defense
Minister Ephraim Sneh told public radio."

Is it possible that the story is not in fact true? Well a government denial doesn't exactly mean anything to me but it certaintly is possible that the story is at the very least a exaggeration of some kind.

Given this alone I would have concluded that I really can't make any conclusions about the charge but...this is not where the story ends.

The claim that Israel may be asking for US "go-ahead" for flyover of Iraq is bolstered by the accounts found in today's Haaretz (Israeli newspaper).

Haaretz reports that Israel has asked and been granted permission from three Arab Gulf states to fly over their countries in case of strikes against Iran.

Three Arab states in the Persian Gulf would be willing to allow the Israel
Air force to enter their airspace in order to reach Iran in case of an attack on
its nuclear facilities, the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Siyasa reported on
Sunday.

According to the report, a diplomat from one of the gulf states visiting
Washington on Saturday said the three states, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab
Emirates, have told the United States that they would not object to Israel using
their airspace, despite their fear of an Iranian response.

Al-Siyasa further reported that NATO leaders are urging Turkey to open its
airspace for an Attack on Iran as well and to also open its airports and borders
in case of a ground attack.

The article makes explicit the lobbying for Turkey to open its airspace, leaving the lobbying of the three Gulf States implicit. But, it seems clear to me that there was some lobbying from Israeli and US officials for over-flights. I don't think UAE or Qatarian (?) officials come to Washington to give such news out of nowhere. Its clear there were talks on this previous to this agreement.

Given this, its not farfetched to believe that the Israel is also lobbying the US for such permission. In fact, it is farfetched to believe that Israel lobbied those 3 Gulf states and didn't lobby the US, its closest ally in the region.

So why the denial? I could only speculate. What seems likely to me is that the denial is political in nature. Israel does not want to further stoke speculations about the US's Iran policy. Though I couldn't tell you in any definite fashion.

In any case the situation seems day by day slipping ever so closer to a physical confrontation with Iran.

First the fiery rhetoric against Iran, then the dubious charges against from the Administration claiming that Iran is directly responsible for the deaths of US soldiers in Iraq, the stationing of 2 (with a 3rd on the way) aircraft carrier group in the region.

Now we have word that the perception is that that American armada is aiming for Iran -- that from the commander of that armada itself.

The quiet-spoken Capt Cloyd embraced the suggestion that the dual
deployment is at the forefront of efforts to stop Iran getting a nuclear bomb,
pointing out that his maritime assets have been tasked to quash any challenge to
global security.

"Our presence here is an affirmation of our resolve in this area to
engage with the nations of the region either where we share common goals or
where we face challenges."

I understand that it is possible that this could all just be an elaborate "saber rattling," but the Bush administration doesn't have that kind of finesse to pull it off. It looks like the pre-Iraq war invasion, and that certaintly was not simple saber rattling as we all know.

Like I said, there is a "chorro" of news out regarding Iran. So much that I decided to split it up in two parts. But tune in though because the information I've left for part two is pretty surprising and important. That's for later today (for sure this time).

Right now I'm going to go eat breakfast with my brother and play with my nephew.