There Will Be No Immigration Bill This Congress...Hooray for Comprehensive Reform!!

So, the House and Senate decide to start holding hearings on immigration reform and, well...It kind of went like this :

At odds over immigration, lawmakers from the Senate and the House held rival hearings on Wednesday on opposite coasts, competing for public support for their
sharply differing proposals and moving no closer to compromise.

Senator Arlen Specter , Republican of Pennsylvania, and Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, sponsors of a bipartisan bill passed by the Senate in May, chose the day after the Fourth of July to hold a hearing wrapped in
patriotic themes at the National Constitution Center here.

Most of the speakers embraced the Senate's approach, which calls for a path to citizenship for most illegal immigrants and a guest worker program, as well as enhanced border security and punishment for employers who hire illegal workers.

In San Diego, Representative Ed Royce, Republican of California and chairman of the House Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Non-Proliferation, was chosen to lead a meeting in a Border Patrol station that featured agents and local sheriffs.

Made for TV moments for proponents of the bipartisan Senate Comprehensive Immigration Bill, as well as for Republican supported House Immigration Bill.

The Senate bill is much more lenient and comprehensive with regards to immigration; it ups border security, but it also deals with illegal aliens already here (which the House bill seems to ignore) by providing them with a path to earned legalized status, plus a guest worker program. The House bill focuses more on upping the enforcement, penalties on employers of illegal immigrants, and has a controversial aspect that would make being an illegal immigrant a felony (a crime) as opposed to remaining a civil infraction. If you think illegal immigrants are underground now, just wait for that to pass.

If I had to make a choice I'd rather have the Comprehensive Senate McCain-Kennedy bill pass...But here's the thing people: There will be NO immigration reform bills passed this Congress.

The Republicans are making a lot of hot air and trying to rouse their base with the whole illegal immigration issue, but the two competing bills are so fundamentally different, and so many politicians are up for re-election and don't want to pass bills that may cause controversy, that the odds are that no bill will pass...And that people, is a good thing.

The Tancredo's in the Republican Party would be best advised to try and get as much of their bill as possible as they can even if it means getting almost nothing because the midterm election are coming up and the wind is blowing on the Democrats backs, not the Republicans. Democrats stand poised to make gains in both the House and the Senate - of that I have no doubts - only the how much the Democrats will gain is unknown. I'll break it down simple like for the Tancredo wing of the Republican Party.

(From a Republican point of view)

Best-Case Scenario: Democrats increase their minority in both the House and the Senate, increasing their leverage in the immigration battle.

What it Means: If Tancredo Republicans are having trouble unifying on this issue now to pass something akin to the House version, add a few more Democrats in the House and Senate and see your dreams look more and more impossible.

Worst-Case Scenario: Democrats retake one or both Chambers of Congress and more than easily pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill which will be "worse" than the one your bitchin and moaning about now. The pressure for reform will remain because no reform was passed this (current) Congress, ensuring that it will be debated next Congress (after midterms).

What It Means: Better immigration reform, Lou Dobbs passing away in what doctors could only describe as a rare case of "his head just exploded."

So...Get what you can, while you still can. Though honestly, I'm hoping you wont.