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Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Israel War Cabinet Votes to Further Expand Ground War

A full-scale invasion is in the works:

I'm not sure it will be successful. I'm not sure about the 30 day timetable, but it is very possible that IDF troops will reach the Litani River. The problem is, that achievement might be irrelevant and not help much.

For one, Hezbollah has proven it can launch rockets even in areas under supposed IDF control.

Second, Hezbollah has announced that it will pursue a "stick and move" attack style against invading IDF. Meaning, it will not be overly concerned with holding on to physical territory, but hit IDF forces in S. Lebanon, do damage and bleed back into the shadows. As the US has come to find out in Iraq, this guerilla tactic has the potential to be VERY EFFECTIVE against a larger conventional army such as the IDF. I wouldn't be surprised to see the use of improvised explosives devices (IED's) to kill IDF soldiers and vehicles.

Israel is attempting to establish a buffer: I think it can make it to the Litani, I just don't think it will matter much in the larger scheme of things.

This is where the guerilla war starts and I'm not sure Israel is prepared. Hopefully diplomacy will stop this thing but diplomacy sure is taking long.

The Secretary of State and the President at odds on how to deal with this Mideast crisis (saw
this on Raw Story)

UPDATE: The number of troops will be 40,000. The plan is to storm to the Litani River without stopping to engage or occupy any villages along the way. Once they do that they plan to work backwards from there to root out Hezbollah.

In this case, they for sure will reach the Litani river (and may go beyond) but aside from that Hezbollah will likely still use stick and move guerilla tactics. It will still be very deadly but now I don't know how it will turn out. Will this prove a better strategy for the IDF? I certainly don't know but I'll get a better impression once the offensive starts. More specifically the part of the invasion that comes after the IDF reaches the Litani.

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