Yay!! There is something non-Lebanon related in this Post!

Its about damn time right! (*hand raised for high five) Wooo!! Yeah!! Ricky Bobby!!

OK, shut up I know I'm a dork alright. It slips out sometimes. Anyways...

If any here are Lou Dobbs watchers than you'd know that Lou Dobbs is claiming that Francine Busby lost the special election in CA-50 due to her support for comprehensive immigration reform and because her Republican opponent took a hard line on immigration.

The figures and polls tell us otherwise: Reasons why Francine Busby lost

Turnout: Democratic turnout in this election very high relative to voter registration. Voter registration in the district is 29.7 democratic, 44.5 republican, and 25.8 independent / Other (Source: California Secretary of State). The partisan breakdown of the MyDD / Courage Campaign poll, which has the final vote results within one-tenth of one-percent for all candidates, was 39 registered Democrats, 43 registered Republicans, and 18 independents / Others (see Q5). In other words, Democrats turned out in force, Republicans were slightly below par, and Independents barely showed up at all. Further, our over-sample of 188 non-voters in this election showed that those who did not vote hold nearly identical candidate preferences in the November test election question to those who did vote (Q21). Considering how heavily Republican this district is, the extremely low Independent turnout was a severe drag on Francine Busby's chances to win this election. She needed a big turnout among Independents in order to win, but that did not happen.

Third-Parties and Independent Voters: While Francine Busby won a plurality of the Independent / Other vote (she received 40o 34or Bilbray) (Q5), given low Independent turnout and the heavily Republican nature of the district, this margin was insufficient to win the election. One major problem for Busby was that third-party candidates received a surprising 26f the Independent vote (Q5). The MyDD / Courage Campaign poll indicates tremendous dissatisfaction among Independents toward Bush (Q16c), Randy Cunningham (Q16d), Brian Bilbray (Q16f), the direction of the country (Q14) and conservative immigration messaging (Q17b and 17c). However, while they are frustrated with Bush and conservatives, Independents did not turn to Democrats in this district, and instead opted for third-party candidates.

(snip)

Immigration: Also contrary to many pundits, both moderates and Independents were far more drawn to progressive immigration messaging of the sort Busby gave rather than the harsh, punitive rhetoric from conservatives in the district (Q17b and Q17c). It is possible that such harsh rhetoric kept the Republican base together, but it should also be noted that no one, not even conservatives, believe that Republicans in Congress will be able to thwart Bush and enact harsh immigration legislation (Q20b). It is possible that this belief also helped keep conservatives home, and may be an avenue for Democrats to exploit in the fall. Put simply, voters see the current majority party as incapable of governing, and Democrats incapable of stopping them from making mistakes.

So, despite the heavily Republican nature of the district, the percentage of democrats who voted increased but the crucial independents stayed home causing Busby to lose.

Lou Dobbs hoped for reason - immigration - for the defeat of Busby was not actually a factor in her defeat as her message was popular with moderates and independents (even though the independents did decide to stay home). It was not popular with conservatives but they would not have voted for Busby in any case and in fact stayed home more so than usual as well. Immigration did not bring more conservatives out. Democrats needed the independents and while they agreed with Democrats, they did not come out and that is why she lost, why she could have won in this heavily Republican district.

Immigration is not this grand sledge hammer issue that Lou Dobbs wants it to be for future election, even in a district (in San Diego) where immigration is a very real, very close to home issue. Imagine the impact in places farther away from the border.

And because I cannot totally not mention Lebanon:

Israel FM believes Qana attack has hurt its image and its ability to maneuver diplomaticaly

Many right-wing bloggers deluding self with conspiracy theories to explain the killing of 60 civilians in Qana bombing (via Glenn Greenwald)