The Current UN Ceasefire is a non-starter

Ceasefire Dead Before It Starts

HOPES of an imminent end to almost a month of war were dashed last night when Hezbollah vowed to ignore a UN-brokered ceasefire and Lebanon blackballed the draft resolution. The UN was discussing the draft as 10 reserve soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah rocket barrage in the northern kibbutz of Kfar Giladi, the deadliest such attack since the Israeli offensive on Lebanon began 27 days ago.

And Israeli fighter-bombers attacked Sidon, killing six civilians, just hours after the southern Lebanese city's 500,000 residents were warned to flee.

Hezbollah said the French-US plan would fail because it had ignored its demand that Israeli forces had to withdraw from southern Lebanon before the Shia militia would agree to stop firing rockets into Israel and retreat to the north.

The Lebanese Government said the plan largely ignored its blueprint for peace -- primarily, the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Jerusalem welcomed the plan, saying it would agree to the UN interim force remaining in southern Lebanon while the international force was assembled.

Hezbollah will not accept the current UN draft resolution, nor will the Lebanese government itself. It is absolutely crucial that any ceasefire voluntarily be accepted by Hezbollah and by Lebanon or else it simply will not work. If Hezbollah does not accept a ceasefire, and does not accept an international force (in the future) than both a doomed to failure and continued violence. If Lebanon does not accept it, its legitimacy is immediately lost.

As it stands, none like the UN ceasefire. What is interesting is that Lebanon is rejecting it because it is sticking to its own proposal for a ceasefire (a more comprehensive plan). See my previous post for the Lebanese Plan

Lebanon is getting more recalcitrant and in the past couple days it own military has fought against IDF soldiers incursions, and fired anti-aircraft fire against IAF planes. Now, Hezbollah and Lebanese military forces are fighting on the same side, further bringing Hezbollah and Lebanon together.

Israeli Pilots 'deliberately miss' targets

At least two Israeli fighter pilots have deliberately missed civilian targets in Lebanon as disquiet grows in the military about flawed intelligence, The Observer has learnt. Sources say the pilots were worried that targets had been wrongly identified as Hizbollah facilities.

Voices expressing concern over the armed forces' failures are getting louder. One
Israeli cabinet minister said last week: 'We gave the army so much money. Why are we getting these results?' Last week saw Hizbollah's guerrilla force, dismissed by senior Israeli military officials as 'ragtag', inflict further casualties on one of the world's most powerful armies in southern Lebanon. At least 12 elite troops, the equivalent of Britain's SAS, have already been killed, and by yesterday afternoon Israel's military death toll had climbed to 45.

As the bodies pile up, so the Israeli media has begun to turn, accusing the military of lacking the proper equipment, training and intelligence to fight a guerrilla war in Lebanon. Israel's defense Minister, Amir Peretz, on a tour of the front lines, was confronted by troubled reserve soldiers who told him they lacked proper equipment and training.

Israel's chief of staff, Major-General Dan Halutz, had vowed to wipe out Hizbollah's missile threat within 10 days. These claims are now being mocked as rockets rain down on Israel's north with ever greater intensity, despite an intense and highly destructive air bombardment.

As one well-connected Israeli expert put it: 'If we have such good information in Lebanon, how come we still don't know the hideout of missiles and launchers?... If we don't know the location of their weapons, why should we know which house is a Hizbollah house?'

(snip)

Shapiro said: 'Some pilots told me they have shot at the side of targets because they're afraid people will be there, and they don't trust any more those who give them the coordinates and targets.'

Lets remember that these pilots are living, thinking beings. Due to the shoddy nature of past intelligence, which has led them to strike 'Hezbollah' targets that have turned out to be occupied by many civilians, they are understandably apprehensive when given new intel to strike at new targets. I don't care who you are - unless you are a cold blooded murderer - killing scores of civilians cannot sit well with these people. Imagine if you were told you were responsible for the deaths of 10 innocent people, 20, 60? That can't be easy.

The reliability of this intelligence is being questioned, and given the tragedies of the past few weeks, perhaps it should be.

Did you read Chief of Staff Halutz' promise to wipe out their rocket capability in 10 days? What is it, day 23 now and the barrage is only getting more deadly. I'm seeing reports of 3 dead and 100 injured in the latest barrage against Haifa Israel, and the death of 11 reservist in northern Israel. Hezbollah is getting more organized, it seems to be coordinating better (firing in a 15 minute range).

Unfortunately, such blind trust in the power of the use of force is not just found in Israel, it is defining trait of our current administration. It leads to the same result though. Over-estimating oneself, overestimating the effectiveness and wisdom of force, underestimating your enemy, and ultimately, failure.

May the innocents of Israel and Lebanon stay safe this night and every other night. Stuck in a conflict none of you wanted, I wish you the best.