UN Sec. Council Resolution Passed for Ceasefire!! Great News!

This is great news!! Nothing is for sure, but it seems as if this will be accepted by both Israel and Lebanon.

From USA Today what the resolution looks like:

The draft would ask the U.N. force to monitor a full cessation of hostilities and help Lebanese forces gain full control over an area that had been controlled by Hezbollah. The draft said the U.N. force could respond by "forceful means" to efforts to prevent it from carrying out its mandate.

The final version fell short of Israel's demand that the force be deployed under the U.N. Charter's Chapter 7, which would authorize troops to use force. Lebanon opposes that because of its fears such a mandate would make the peacekeepers look like occupiers.

Israeli officials said a small, weak U.N. force in south Lebanon is a deal breaker. Israel worries such a force will not be able to prevent Hezbollah guerrillas from resuming attacks on Israel. However, Israel TV's Channel 10 quoted an Olmert aide as saying the final draft was "good for Israel," and an individual close to the government said there was a "good chance" Israel would accept it.

This is very encouraging. A boosted Chapter 6 UN force and agreed ceasefire ensures that they are peacekeepers as opposed to peacemakers (like Israel and the US wanted) tasked with fighting off Hezbollah. It avoids the perception of an occupation force. I also hear that it will also include Lebanon sending in 15,000 soldiers to take control of the southern regions that it has not had control of.

[UPDATE 7:26 PM: I can't verify the 15,000 Lebanese troop contingent. I haven't seen mentions of them and that 15,000 force is important. Although there will be more UN forces in Lebanon, they will be just as useless as the current forces. Without those 15,000 Lebanese troops to control the south than this UN resolution is stupid. Will Hezbollah respect the UNIFIL force alone? I doubt it. Oh god, once again I am begining to have my doubts about this. I was so excited about this just a few short hours ago and now I'm very worried.

In this case, I see very little that Israel gains from the ceasefire except that it will avoid the disaster that was sure to occur where it to actually fully implement its full ground invasion. It gained little; then again they were desperate to get the hell out of there. With that said you can continue to read this post but a lot of what I wrote depends on Lebanese control of the south and that's not a given anymore. *Sigh*]

Why did Israel accept it, especially as it was just beginning its large invasion of Lebanon? I believe it was a large bluff. It really does not want to have a large invasion of Lebanon (very, very smart of them) and they see this as acceptable enough despite it not including a lot of what they want. Its enough for them, they just want out.

The increased UN force plus the Lebanese soldiers in the south must make them feel a little better about the resolution. The invasion will continue until Sunday when they vote to accept the resolution: They want to get in as many blows as possible before the ceasefire begins.

Hezbollah has gained much from the conflict, but this resolution should be a blow to Hezbollah.

Israel will have agreed to a ceasefire, taking away one of the rationales for Hezbollah to continue strikes on Israel, the Lebanese state has signed on to it, reducing the legitimacy of Hezbollah strikes on Israel and its continued resistance among the Lebanese public (in case they refuse to stop fighting). The Lebanese people desperately want an end to the fighting and this ceasefire will be seen as that avenue; for Hezbollah to continue fighting, this time it will likely incur the wrath of the Lebanese people.

It will be UN and Lebanese troops who will be in the south, if Hezbollah resists these attempts by the UN and Lebanon to command the south it will hurt Hezbollah. They are not killing IDF soldiers this time, it will be fellow Lebanese and UN forces. That will not help Hezbollah.

There is still the possibility that Hezbollah will not agree and continue the fight but perhaps Hezbollahs approval may not be needed to work as I once believed. It would be great for them to agree, but it would not be smart for Hezbollah to fight the Lebanese government and the UN.

What is bad is that it would be a blood bath if it does decide to resist. Hmm...Let me change my
view around as it keeps changing on the necessity to have the acquiescence of Hezbollah for a ceasefire to work:

Hezbollah's acceptance of the ceasefire resolution and its terms is extremely important, but for Hezbollah to not accept it would hurt Hezbollah. May even erase much of the gains it has made during the course of this conflict. (That is my final view on that on this post)


It will likely lose much of what it has gained among the Lebanese and Arab public if it does so. Hezbollah would be smart to go along with this.

Oh, how things have turned around. Israel - for once - made the right choice and it was diplomacy that has turned the tables on Hezbollah, not its military might. Hezbollah likely would have preferred for Israel to continue fighting on indefinitely.

As of today, finally, I believe it is Lebanon and Israel who have the upper hand on Hezbollah. I hope this will pan out not turn out like so many "close to peace" moments in the middle east; Turns to dust.