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Friday, July 14, 2006

Hope for the Future?

Could there actually be a silver lining to the chaos going on in Lebanon? Could the aggressive actions of Hezbollah come back to bite them in the ass?

According to this Washington Post article from today, Hezbollah may see its significant power erode within Lebanon in response to its actions in provoking Israel:

Here are some choice snippets:

The radical Shiite movement Hezbollah and its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, hold an effective veto in Lebanese politics, and the group's military prowess has heartened its supporters at home and abroad in the Arab world. But that same force of arms has begun to endanger Hezbollah's long-term standing in a country where critics accuse it of dragging Lebanon into an unwinnable conflict the government neither chose nor wants to fight.

...

The conflict will likely prove a turning point in the history of the movement, which was created with Iranian patronage in the wake of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. It has since evolved from a terrorist organization blamed for two attacks on the U.S. Embassy and the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 Marines, into a sprawling movement with a member and supporter in Lebanon's cabinet, a militia that effectively controls southern Lebanon, and an infrastructure that delivers welfare to its Shiite constituency, Lebanon's largest community.

But in the wake of Syria's withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon in 2005, the disarmament of Hezbollah has emerged as one of the foremost issues in Lebanese politics. Since the fighting with Israel started Wednesday, calls for Hezbollah to relinquish its weapons have gathered urgency. The violence began when Hezbollah fighters captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border incursion, followed by an Israeli attack on roads, bridges, power stations and airports.

And then there is this:

Thursday, Lebanese officials began to lay the groundwork for an extension of government control to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah largely controls southern Lebanon, where it has built up a network of schools, hospitals and charities.
"To declare war and to make military action must be a decision made by the state and not by a party," said Nabil de Freige, a parliament member.

...

After a cabinet meeting Thursday, the government said it had a right and duty to extend its control over all Lebanese territory. Interior Minister Ahmed Fatfat said the statement marked a step toward the government reasserting itself.

It appears that there is anger at the arrogance and stupidity of Hezbollah dragging Lebanon and its people into a war with Israel that it did not want and that it cannot win. A depowered Hezbollah would definitely constitute a silver lining in this horrible situation. Hopefully, Israel will take heed of President Bush's warning to be carefull not to destabalize the Lebanese government before it can assert itself in the south. It would be in Israel's interest that the Lebanese government survive.

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