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Thursday, July 13, 2006

Israel and the Middle Easts Dire Situation

The situation in the middle east has been escalating very fast as even casual observers will notice. Although it is clear that in the case of how it is handling the Hamas kidnapping situation and the Hizbollah situation it is overreacting (overreactions that serve to strengthen the cause and interests of Hizbollah and Hamas), it would also be very unrealistic to expect Israel to essentially sit on their hands as Hamas and Hizbollah kidnap their soldiers.

What has been done so far has, well, been wrong. Its been two weeks and Cpt. Shalit is still missing and I suspect that the 2 kidnapped soldiers in Lebanon will not be returning anytime soon, so certainly the reaction is not furthering the goal of release.

Direct negotiations are not preferable in either case: The precedent of releasing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners for 1 soldier may very well prompt Hamas to repeatedly kidnap soldiers to get what they want. It would of been better to allow the PA and the Fatah faction to try and negotiate for the release. Of course, the incursions and strikes in Gaza makes the possibility of Fatah negotiating with Hamas to release the prisoner, less and less likely.

And now, as I predicted in my earlier post, Israel has gone the road of collective punishment in Lebanon:

Striking the the Beirut Int. Airport, closing the ports, and striking hundreds of other targets in Lebanon to punish the government of Lebanon and its people and it is now threatening that Beirut itself will soon become a legitimate target. When it does, expect "collateral damage" (ie innocent civilian deaths). Syria may be next, and perhaps Iran.

I fear we have yet to see the worst of the violence and carnage in the middle east. Imagine, this escalating conflict began with the kidnapping of 1 soldier, and then the kidnapping of 2 more. What a sad situation.

UPDATE: (1:06 PM) Reports of civilian deaths are already popping up in Lebanon:
53 civilians killed in Lebanon . And the targets so far have been narrowed to military bases, and the airport and such things. Imagine if Israel makes true its promise to make the capital city Beirut a target. The death toll with be horrible. The worse, I know, is yet to come.

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