Billmon On the UN Ceasefire

Billmon at Whiskey Bar has dealt with the Lebanon conflict more consistantly and often than some other A-List blogger (I don't judge), so I've visited his blog often for his thoughts.

He echoes some of my doubts (and addresses a few I never even mention), and after reading his post my enthusiasm about this ceasefire has decreased even further. I was very enthusiastic about it just a few hours ago as my previous posts attest...oh well Please read his post on it.

A great sample:

But what are they going to do? They've blown it, right down the line, from the opening bid for an aerial knockout, through the defeats and retreats, the incredible shrinking war aims, the daily humiliation of seeing a third of Israel bombarded with rockets. And now this -- a ceasefire that appears to give Hizbullah all or nearly all of what it demanded (although not the Laker tickets), all of it to be supervised by a "reinforced" version of UNIFIL (most of the reinforcements will probably never arrive) working under a limited one-year mandate, and with no more legal authority to use force than the current bunch of blue helmets.

And for this, Lebanon was ravaged, thousands were killed, millions on both sides spent weeks couped up in air raid shelters and the credibility and any lingering shreds of respectability of the U.S. government in the Islamic world were flushed down the you-know-what. For this.

So we are stuck with this: A ceasefire with a UN force that alone will not be able to use force and no Lebanese soldiers (I hope this changes or the Lebanese take it on themselves to do it. Even then though, will Shia soldiers fight Shia Hezbollah brethren?) While Israel dodges a bullet by not following through on its full offensive, it and the United States has already lost plenty.

The defeat of its forces, the loss of its mystique of 'invincibility', the increased popularity of Hezbollah. The weakness it showed by its inability to stop the rocket strikes. And as Billmon points out: " the credibility and any lingering shreds of respectability of the U.S. government in the Islamic world were flushed down the you-know-what" with the reports of hundreds of dead Lebanese civilians at the hands of the IAF with the "green-light" of the US.

I take back my declaration that, finally, Israel had the upper hand. I still hope that a good peace can prevail with this ceasefire, but I'm under no illusions about the winner in this: Hezbollah is still winning. I still believe that Hezbollah would have loved to see IDF forces bogged down in Lebanon, but this is still good enough for them.

Will the ceasefire hold? Its up to Hezbollah now.