David Ignatius on Lebanon

A great, great column by David Ignatius on the Lebanon crisis, the implications of it, and even policy prescriptions (which will not likely be used).

He disagrees with the notion from the previous WaPo article that public anger in Lebanon will translate into the reigning in of Hezbollah in the south, which is unfortunate, because I desperately hoped that something good could come from such a horrible situation.

He seems to agree with the view, which I share and go on about in various earlier posts, that the actions of Hezbollah were done precisely to provoke Israel into attacking it in Lebanon in order to further its own goals. Ignatius goes further than that and opines that the "goals" where to benefit Hezbollah benefactors, Iran. To distract the US, and to drag Israel into a conflict that will sap it of its strength as they as they see the US being bogged down in Iraq. This snip really resonates with me:

Israeli and American doctrine is premised on the idea that military force will deter adversaries. But as more force has been used in recent years, the deterrent value has inevitably gone down. That's the inner spring of this crisis: The Iranians (and their clients in Hezbollah and Hamas) watch the American military mired in Iraq and see weakness. They are emboldened rather than intimidated. The same is true for the Israelis in Gaza. Rather than reinforcing the image of strength, the use of force (short of outright, pulverizing invasion and occupation) has encouraged contempt.

The danger of Iranian-backed adventurism is immense right now, but that's all the more reason for America and Israel to avoid past mistakes in countering it. Reliable strategic lessons are hard to come by in that part of the world, but here are a few:

The first is that in countering aggression, international solidarity and legitimacy matter. In responding to the Lebanon crisis, the United States should work closely with its allies at the Group of Eight summit
and the United Nations. Iran and its proxies would like nothing more than to isolate America and Israel. They would like nothing less than a strong, international coalition of opposition.

A second point -- obvious from Gaza to Beirut to Baghdad -- is that the power of non-state actors is magnified when there is no strong central government. That may sound like a truism, but responding wisely can require some creative diplomacy. The way to blunt Hamas is to build a strong Palestinian Authority that delivers benefits for the Palestinian people. The way to curb Hezbollah is to build up the Lebanese government and army. One way to boost the Lebanese government (and deflate Hezbollah) would be to negotiate the
return of the Israeli-occupied territory known as Shebaa Farms. That chance is lost for now, but the Bush administration should find other ways to enhance Siniora's authority.

I cannot agree more with Ignatius. Its perfectly within Israel's right to respond to Hezbollah in a military manner, like it was its was perfectly within Israel's right to respond to Hamas' provocations, but RESPOND WISELY. Israel needs to get beyond the tried and repeatedly failed policy of "hit them with overwhelming and disproportionate force" for every single act of terrorism that is committed. Its clear that Hamas and Hezbollah WANT, no, NEED the disproportionate and uncomplicated responses that Israel has so far produced in response to provocations.

Lets not play Hezbollah's (and Iran's), and Hamas' game and get sucked down a road that Iraq has shown us to unwinnable. Lets stop being suckers!! Or as Ignatius more eloquently puts:

In the Lebanon crisis we have a terrifying glimpse of the future: Iran and its radical allies are pushing toward war. That's the chilling reality behind this week's events. On Tuesday the Iranians spurned an American offer of talks on their nuclear program; on Wednesday their Hezbollah proxy committed what Israel rightly called "an act of war." The radicals want to lure America and Israel deeper into the killing ground, confident that they have the staying power to prevail. We should not play their game.

For the sake of the world and our nation, lets not play their game.