Bad News in Iraq + Some 'meh' News in Lebanon

Lets start with the "meh" news shall we. Just a little update on what's going on in Lebanon now that its mostly off the mainstream news.

Lebanese troops cross the Litani River into south Lebanon for the first time in decades.

That's some OK news, but this passage caught my attention

Lebanon's Cabinet on Wednesday approved the plan to deploy army troops south of the Litani River, but the government said soldiers would not hunt down Hezbollah guerrillas and would not try to disarm them.

(snip)

"There will be no confrontation between the army and brothers in Hezbollah. ... That is not the army's mission," said Information Minister Ghazi Aridi after the two-hour Cabinet meeting. "They are not going to chase or, God forbid, exact revenge (on Hezbollah)."

(snip)

Hezbollah's top official in south Lebanon issued the strongest indication yet that the guerrillas would not disarm in the region or withdraw, but rather melt into the local population and hide their weapons.

Which more or less falls in line with what most people expected. I'm sure the south will remain a powerbase for Hezbollah, except now they are not allowed to brandish their guns in the open or carry them in the open. Until the time comes when they will find a justification to say that they need to remobilize themselves that is.

The US has blocked missile shipments for Hezbollah coming from Iran:

This was during the conflict mind you, but the gist is that they managed to get Turkey to refuse a suspicious Iranian cargo plane to fly over its territory unless it submitted to inspection (it flew back to Tehran instead). Good for the US, but I'm certain that things will get through nonetheless and Hezbollah will be rearmed again and perhaps stocked with more advanced weapons given their proven track record of success.

And since we are on Turkey, Iran and the US

Iran and Turkey have amassed forces on the border of northern Iraq and are shelling towns in Kurshish controlled northern Iraq

This is the bad news. Turkey and Iran are fed up with the Kurdish seperatists activities that they say stem from their bases in northern Iraq and there is much pressure - especially in Turkey to actually invade northern Iraq - to put a stop to it. What will the Americans say?

Turkey and Iran have dispatched tanks, artillery and thousands of troops to their frontiers with Iraq during the past few weeks in what appears to be a coordinated effort to disrupt the activities of Kurdish rebel bases. Scores of Kurds have fled their homes in the northern frontier region after four days of shelling by the Iranian army. Local officials said Turkey had also fired a number of shells into Iraqi territory.

(snip)

Frustrated by the reluctance of the US and the government in Baghdad to crack down on the PKK bases inside Iraq, Turkish generals have hinted they are considering a large-scale military operation across the border. They are said to be sharing intelligence about Kurdish rebel movements with their Iranian counterparts.

"We would not hesitate to take every kind of measures when our security is at stake," Abdullah Gul, the Turkish foreign minister, said last week.

There has been sporadic shelling of the region since May but officials worry that concerted military action against PKK bases in Iraq could alienate Iraqi Kurds and destabilize their self-rule region, one of few post-invasion success stories. Some analysts say Ankara and Tehran may be trying to pressure Iraq's Kurds, afraid that their de facto independent region would encourage their own Kurdish population.

Let me put some context to people with little knowledge or interest in the region (I'm no expert by any means, but I know a few things)

Although I know this is probably not the complete list, Kurds are an ethnic group that reside in parts of Turkey, northern Iraq, and Iran. They have no state but the collective region they reside in that overlap with these different countries is dubbed "Kurdistan." There are Kurdish groups who push for their own state carved out of the parts of the existing states they currently reside in (called seperatists) and it is these seperatist groups that Turkey and Iran are worried about. The PKK mentioned is one of the Kurdish groups in the region and it is listed as a terrorist groups by most governments.

With that said: Does not the situation resemble the Lebanon/Israel situation? A terror group in Iraq is striking targets in Iran and Turkey (Turkey is an ally btw), the Iraqi government nor the US occupation forces are able or willing to intervene, leaving much pressure for Turkey and Iran to do something about it on their own.

Now by the rationale that we continually heard from Israel and repeated over and over again by the US; Turkey and Iran should have the right to defend themselves from these attacks coming from northern Iraq. I wonder if the US government will see it the same way this time. I doubt it.

What a bummer for the US though, the center and south are hellholes and the much quieter and peaceful north may erupt in violence and invasion of foreign different foreign troops if the US
does nothing to stop the PKK in the north. Problem is:

1) They have their hands full dealing with the Iraqi insurgency and operating in the midst of "a full-scale sectarian conflict" (Can someone just call it what it is dammit: Civil War!), do you think they can spare troops to quell the PKK in the north. In any case they'd likely just get the PKK to start fighting the Americans as well and then the WHOLE of Iraq would be a shithole for the US.

Of couse, the alternative is to do nothing and risk pushing Iran and Turkey into conflict in the north, using the same rationale as the US and Israel gave for invading Lebanon no less!

There seems to be no good answer for the US in Iraq, and that was before the prospect of conflict in the north started. Hey maybe the US can convince the PKK with words or incentives to stop its activities...who knows. (I kind of doubt it)

Man, we need to get the hell out of Iraq within 1 year. Dammit if the US continues to get slaughtered as the different sectarian groups in Iraq try and duke it out. It was not a good idea to begin with and its obvious it continues to do harm with out continued presence in Iraq.

Are we safer yet?