The Ceasefire Takes Effect

A cause for some celebration in Lebanon and Israel; the bombs have stopped falling in Lebanon (unless an IAF feels the need to "defensively" bomb the hell out of someone), and the rockets have stopped hitting northern Israel (until the next time Hezbollah decides to goad Israel).

Does it sound as if I am very optimistic?

Sure, there is a marginal chance that the ceasefire and its terms will be followed but its very unlikely. The UN resolution calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah...yeah, that's not gonna happen and I doubt the UN and Lebanese forces will try and "force" the issue in any case.

The UN and the Lebanese military will occupy the south of Lebanon - a good thing - but somehow I doubt that the south will cease to be a powerbase for Hezbollah. For the most part this just returns the region to the status quo before the conflict, so why was I relieved when all sides agreed to the ceasefire?

Because a ceasefire (even if the terms would not be followed) would end the violence, and would save Israel and Lebanon the disaster and violence that would have followed had the war continued and the invasion run its course. Lebanon is better of with the ceasefire, and Israel dodges a bullet by getting the hell out of there.

So we are back to the status quo...sort of.

In fact, things are not exactly the same: For Israel, money and treasure has been blown down the tube for an unsuccessful campaign, its international image and the image of its military has been brought down a peg. Israeli PM Ehud Olmert is now facing terrible political problems and calls for him to resign. What will this mean for Kadima? What will it mean for the lot of Likud and Labor parties? I cannot tell you, but it is not as it was prior to the conflict. Israel's enemy Hezbollah has dealt it a defeat and has emerged from the conflict boosted and emboldened. Lebanon and the region has become even more anti-Israel, and there is no doubt increased radicalization in Lebanon that will fuel additional recruits and power for Hezbollah in the future.

Lebanon...the old status quo was a lot easier for them than the modified status quo. Nearly a thousand dead Lebanese, billions of dollars of damage to Lebanon's infrastructure, increased radicalization among its populace. Hezbollah has been boosted and emboldened by the war and is even now promising to help people rebuild their homes in their efforts to act like a state when the actual state cannot do a god damn thing for its people.

So its back to the status quo ante, except Israel, Lebanon and its people are in a worse position than prior to the war. It could have been worse had the war continued...but it wouldn't be this bad had the war never started.