More Lebanon + A Bush Funny (which will make you cry)

I didn't feel like typing yesterday so here is what I would of blogged yesterday:

The NY Times (Aug.14) telling us what we already suspected; Bush liked the invasion but didn't push for ceasefire until it started going bad. There could have been ceasefire earlier but the US made that impossible early on.

Aug. 13 When Israel began its counterattack on Hezbollah one month ago, the Bush administration backed the Israeli plan to destroy the militia and its arsenal of rockets, resisting efforts by France and other allies to call for a cease-fire.

But as the assault wore on and it became evident that Hezbollah was a far more fearsome and skilled adversary than Israel had first thought and as Lebanese civilian casualties mounted American policy moved more urgently toward seeking an immediate political solution.

That shift, recounted by senior administration officials, led to one of the most dramatic bouts of diplomacy that the United Nations Security Council has witnessed in years. Whether it leads to peace in southern Lebanon remains unclear. But what is certain is that negotiators in a half-dozen countries took part in a rare high-wire act.

Bush calls for sealing of Syria's border with Lebanon (Raw Story)- Yeah, good luck with that. Who is going seal the border? The Lebanese Army? I wouldn't put my hopes on them. Hezbollah was very confident of its ability to resupply even in the midst of massive surveillance and airstrikes from the IAF but if it means anything: I someone does seal the border.

A transcript of a CNN interview with a Lebanese political scientist on the prospects in Lebanon (and on whether Hezbollah will disarm): A snip

HOST: Hezbollah ministers are refusing to talk about [disarmament] but once they do accept to talk about it -- at some point the political dialog will have to start up again -- then what? Will Hezbollah lay down its arms, do you think?

SAAD-GHORAYEB: No. It's out of the question. I mean, Hezbollah has said on many occasions -- even in private interviews, I've had with them before this conflict, during this conflict -- there was no way, given that the balance of power has shifted -- in Hezbollah's opinion, to its favor -- that it sees any need to disarm. And, in fact, that the hostilities are ongoing -- Israel continues to occupy the Shivah[sic] Farms. It may take quite a while before the U.N. resolves that issue. You've still got the prisoner exchange still being negotiated. There will be eventually. Of course, there's the fact that Israeli forces are still on Lebanese soil. So it's premature to discuss disarmament.

(snip)

HOST: Wait. So, wait. Because the perception you were getting in the last week, 10 days is that Hezbollah has agreed with the Lebanese government on its 7 point plan which calls for a southern Lebanon that is free of all arms except for the regular Lebanese army and a strengthened Unifil force. Did we misunderstand then?

SAAD-GHORAYEB: Well, it's all a matter of semantics. Basically, when the government said -- that 7 point plan -- that the Lebanese state would have a monopoly over arms, this did not, in Hezbollah's understanding, mean that Hezbollah would be disarmed. I think that what they thought was going to happen was weapons deactivation but not disarmament. You know, it's not the same thing.

Like I said, Hezbollah has been boosted by the war and it will not disarm, merely "deactivate" its forces which can be activated again should they feel like it. The only pressure that had a shot of disarming Hezbollah was the internal political pressures post Cedar Revolution. It was not going to be immediate, but eventually it could have happened. That opportunity is gone with the war, and as the quote implies, Hezbollah sees even less of a reason to disarm given the "shift in the balance in power in their favor."

President Bush is confused and frustrated as to why Iraqi's are not supporting the American mission in Iraq (via AmericaBlog's AJ):

I nearly choked on my Wheaties this morning reading the headline:

"Bush Said to Be Frustrated by Level of Public Support in Iraq."

Apparently the President met with some leading Iraq and Middle East scholars and informed them that he's "frustrated that the new Iraqi government and the Iraqi people had not shown greater public support for the American mission." Further, he was reportedly "puzzled" as to how recent anti-American protests could draw so many people.

Everybody knows he's out of touch, but wow. Just . . . wow.

This coming from a man who apparently advocates "constructive chaos" as a policy for an entire region of the world. I'm really running out of ways to be shocked by the incompetence of this administration. The leader of the free world is so clearly out of his depth that it's incredibly difficult for me to imagine his administration doing anything right -- anything at all -- in these difficult times. One despairs.

President Bush also reportedly expressed the view that "the Shia-led government needs to clearly and publicly express the same appreciation for United States efforts and sacrifices as they do in private." So he thinks that when Iraqi leaders thank him in private, they're being honest? And not, y'know, doing the usual diplomatic sucking up? His failure to appropriate plan for the war and its aftermath has ruined their entire country! Yes, many many Iraqis were glad that the U.S. toppled a murderous, despicable regime. But now Iraqi leaders think that they could do far better than the U.S., and it's hard to argue with that assessment. Shia groups especially increasingly view the Coalition presence as an inflammatory and unhelpful presence, and wishing it weren't so isn't helpful.

But is this newfound desire for alternative viewpoints going to make a difference?Will it push the administration towards more reality-based policy? Could there be some hope from a meeting like this? Uh . . .

Mr. Nasr, author of 'The Shia Revival' . . . said he got no sense that the Bush administration was contemplating a shift in its Iraq policy.

I will now stab myself in the eye.

That's it for now!