Israel, Lebanon & Hezbollah to Accept Ceasefire and Terms

Well let me first correct myself - again.

There will be a 15,000 strong Lebanese contingent along with the expanded 15,000 strong UNIFIL force. The plan is for the UN/Leb force to take control of the south bits at a time, then Israel leaves that bit, and the process is repeated until they reach the border and Israel finally leaves Lebanon. From USA Today

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said Saturday that the Islamic militant group will abide by a U.N. cease-fire resolution but will continue fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in south Lebanon...

The resolution, adopted unanimously, authorizes 15,000 U.N. peacekeepers to help Lebanese troops take control of south Lebanon as Israeli forces that have occupied the area withdraw....

The U.N. plan approved Friday night would create a peacekeeping force by combining a beefed-up version of the ineffective U.N. units already in the war zone and 15,000 soldiers from the Lebanese army. The force, which could number around 30,000, would stand between Israel and the Hezbollah militia...

But it will be nearly impossible to rid south Lebanon of the Islamic guerrillas, who are now in the Lebanese Cabinet and run clinics and other charities that are considered essential in rebuilding the region. Their ability to withstand the Israeli military assault has also made Hezbollah heroes across the Arab and Islamic worlds.

To be sure, the fighting continues at least until Sunday when Israel is expected to vote to accept the UN resolution. It will likely go longer as Hezbollah has promised to fight as long as Israel is in Lebanon and the withdrawal plan looks like it will take awhile.

I got to say, I'm feeling a lot better about this ceasefire. I was worried about the status of the Lebanese contingent but it indeed will be with the UN force. I was worried about the acceptance of Hezbollah to the plan (I called it extremely important that they accept) and they indicate they will. (They knew this was the smart thing to do.)

Honestly this whole thing hinges on Hezbollahs willingness to accept the terms, so if they go along this has a real good chance.

My overall assesemt of winners and losers still holds true. The Lebanese people have lost the most in this conflict but this resolution is good for them as it may end the violence. Something has to be done by the international community to rebuild the destroyed Lebanese infrastructure. We want Lebanon back on its feet. I'm afraid that some degree of radicalization has already taken hold there and Hezbollah recruits will be more than forthcoming. Anti-American sentiment no doubt has increased and that can't be good.

Israel is the big loser in this conflict. Its international image is degraded further, it has lost troops and treasure to fight a war that 1) Proved unsuccessful. 2) Shattered its mystique of "invincibility" by showing how the IDF and IAF could be defeated. 3) Boosted the power and prestige of the Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Ceasefire that Israel will accept has terms that are mostly what Lebanon and Hezbollah wants. Sure it might stop rocket attacks but Israel has little confidence in the new UN/Leb force; for them to accept it despite this shows a core weakness and a desperate need to get the hell out of Lebanon no matter what it takes. They want out.

The US: An overall loser. While it is possible that it might gain something for its work getting this ceasefire resolution together, what most Muslims and Lebanese will remember most (and first) is the apparent "green-light" that the US gave for Israel to continue striking Lebanon in the early stages. That "green-light" for Israel to hit Hezbollah is the reason that a ceasefire was not done earlier and why nearly 1000 Lebanese civilians have been killed along with billions of dollars of damage to Lebanon's infrastructure. To paraphrase Billmon: Our credibility and respect has gone down the toilet and it was not all that great to begin with.

The Lebanese State is a loser. While it gains from taking control of all its territory, the country has been totally devastated. Its hundreds of thousands of its people are refugees and will need to be resettled. Thousands of its people have been killed or injured in the bombing. Billions of dollars in damage has been done to its heavily damaged infrastructure. The people will look to them to fix this and that is no easy task. Plus, the power and prestige of Hezbollah will only increase in Lebanon as the people look back to Hezbollah success in 'fighting for Lebanon'.

Hezbollah comes out ahead at the end of this: It is potentially losing its powerbase in the south but I doubt all Hezbollah presence will be eliminated. It is boosted and emboldened by its successful repelling of the Israel military. Expect a jump in recruitment and expect Syria and Iran to continue to supply weapons to them. It took on Israel and made them back down and accept a resolution that is much more preferable to Lebanon and Hezbollah than to Israel. I can't predict what this will mean for its representation in the Parliament since I don't know those politics well enough.

That's it for now.